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An interesting TAF

 

We have some fairly nasty weather blowing in to the Pacific Northwest tonight and tomorrow.  It looks like a big jumbled mess of fronts, one after the other, hitting us with rain, wind, and snow.  

 

One of the things that caught my attention was this line of the TAF for Boeing Field.  What would you think/expect if you saw this?

 



FM220400 17012KT P6SM -RA BKN025 OVC035 WS020/20045KT






Here's a quick view of the prog chart for tomorrow:






 

 

We're entering into a dangerous time in General Aviation and Cirrus flying - this is the time of year where get-there-itis combines with ice and low ceilings to challenge our vigilance on personal minimums.  Don't let it catch you!  Start looking at the weather a few days in advance, talk to your family about planned alternatives to flying your plane, and take those outs when things start to look a little iffy.  

 

Safe flying!

 

John Fiscus

 

Chief Pilot, The Flight Academy

www.theflightacademy.com   


Posted 21 Nov 2011 16:26 by John Fiscus

Comments

Robert Hancock wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 25 Nov 2011 9:49

Wind shear as expected wouldn't be for the faint of heart. Presure gradients as shown gives additional clues as to what find of flight one might expect.

Scott Dennstaedt wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 21 Dec 2011 15:50

John,

This is called non-convective low level wind shear and is harmless most of the time.  It's a form of vertical speed shear and isn't associated with convection and is not a forecast for turbulence.  It's probably the most misunderstood weather forecast in aviation - most of the instructors that I've spoken with over the years don't understand it either.  

John Fiscus wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 21 Dec 2011 17:11

I'm surprised that most instructors don't understand what it means, Scott!  

It may be harmless in other places, but every time I've been in the air in the Seattle area and we've had this kind of shear, it kicks our butts!  It happens here fairly frequently in the winter time.  I actually went up on that afternoon and ... oof.  I had to disconnect the autopilot because it couldn't keep up (the Garmin AP no less) and slow below maneuvering speed due to the turbulence.  

Scott Dennstaedt wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 21 Dec 2011 17:49

John,

The turbulence you experienced wasn't due to this non-convective LLWS.  In most cases the air is glassy smooth.  It is often present on clear, calm nights and you may not know it is even there unless you take notice of your ground speeds as you land.  It's not typically forecast in this situation, but I've seen it dozens of times at night.  My point is that non-convective LLWS as it appears in a TAF is NOT a forecast for turbulence.  And, it is not the same wind shear as you might experience with convective activity.  But unfortunately, pilots just don't understand that.    

John Fiscus wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 21 Dec 2011 18:01

Hm.  Ok, well it may not be an explicit forecast for turbulence, but every time I've been in the air and this has been forecast as it appears above, I've been beat up until I get well below the noted level.  This has happened to me not quite a dozen times, but close and it's consistent in the Pacific Northwest.  

I have talked to a lot of pilots who don't understand the difference between the different kinds of shear.  This one, of course, isn't the same shear as you'd get in convective weather.  And that stuff REALLY sucks.  I've only been in the air near a strong convective shear once and that was enough to learn not to do it again.

In any case, I'll still give a warning of "let the flyer beware" if they're in mountainous or even moderately hilly terrain and they see this in the forecast.  While it might turn out to be harmless, my experience has always been that it makes for some interesting bumps.  

Scott Dennstaedt wrote re: An interesting TAF
on 22 Dec 2011 17:23

As I said, it is probably the most misunderstood forecast in aviation.  Sort of like when pilots don't want to run their airplane LOP because they believe it'll hurt the engine.  In fact, I've written a couple of articles about non-convective LLWS and developed a couple of workshops so pilots can really understand what it is and not to be afraid of it.    

In general I've had quite the opposite experience with this forecast.  Most of the time the air is glassy smooth.  So I am quite happy to see it.   Ever fly at night when the air is clear and winds at the surface are calm?  I can almost guarantee you that you will fly through non-convective LLWS when you land or depart and don't even know it.  That's all courtesy of a nocturnal temperature inversion.  

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